Artificial Intelligence in human resources and employment in Spain: A Delphi foresight study to 2030

Abstract

The proliferation of artificial intelligence models has generated significant interest in business management, particularly in human resources, and has intensified debate about their effects on organizations and the labor market. This study offers a prospective analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence on the Spanish labor market through 2030 using the Delphi method, which systematically gathers and consolidates expert opinions under conditions of technological uncertainty. The findings anticipate higher adoption among large firms than among small and medium-sized enterprises, identify key enabling factors such as employee training and organizational knowledge, and highlight heterogeneous effects across sectors. They also indicate which economic activities are most likely to be affected by the expansion of these technologies in the coming years.